Introduction: From Counting to Consequences
In this four-part series on Kenya’s demographic crossroads, I have been reflecting on two bookends of my own journey. In 2004, my master’s dissertation, Demographic Transition in Kenya and Implications for Public Policy examined the Kenya Demographic and Health Survey (KDHS) of 2003 and warned that the youth bulge was both a promise and a peril. Unless we created jobs, built skills, and included young people in shaping their future, the demographic wave could turn turbulent.
Two decades later, the 2023/24 KDHS confirms what we feared: Kenya remains a youthful nation — over 75% of Kenyans are under 35 — but the labor market has failed to absorb this generation into meaningful, secure, and dignified work.
The first article in this series reflected on those lessons: demography is not destiny, jobs are the currency of stability, and youth inclusion must be designed, not assumed. The second article argued that policy must move beyond counting people to planning for outcomes. Today, in this third piece, we arrive at the core of the challenge: employment — not just education — is the true lever of transformation.
A Generation Educated but Excluded
Kenya has invested heavily in education. From Free Primary Education in 2003 to 100% transition to secondary school in the last decade, access has expanded dramatically. The result is a far more educated youth population than in 2003.
Yet, if education is the ladder, employment is the ground beneath it. And far too many Kenyan youth are climbing only to discover there is nowhere to stand. Over one million young people enter the labor market each year, yet the economy cannot absorb them.
The result is a generation educated but excluded — with degrees in hand but dignity out of reach. As one participant in our May 2025 Navigating Uncertainty webinar series put it:
“We were prepared to follow jobs. We were never taught how to create them.”
Why “Kazi ni Kazi” Is Not a Sound Economic Policy
The catchy slogan, “Kazi ni Kazi” — “a job is a job” — captures a political soundbite but not a sound economic policy.
Recent research backs this critique. A 2022 study by the INCLUDE platform showed that 70% of Kenya’s per capita value-added growth between 2013 and 2018 came from productivity improvements, not from adding more low-quality jobs. As the authors note, “Counting jobs without raising productivity reproduces poverty at scale.”
Similarly, the Kenya Institute for Public Policy Research and Analysis (KIPPRA) finds that around 40% of Kenyan youth are in “vulnerable employment” — unpaid family work or precarious self-employment. The message is clear:
“Vulnerable work isn’t a victory — it’s a warning light.”
Informality Dominates, Quality Jobs Lag
Kenya’s labor market is overwhelmingly informal. According to the 2024/25 Labor Market Profile, 81% of non-agricultural employment is informal. At the same time, the labor share of national income is falling, meaning growth is not translating into better wages or security for most workers.
The consequence is a swelling class of working poor. A 2025 study in ScienceDirect notes that Kenya’s employment challenge cannot be measured in job counts alone but must distinguish between “working poor” and “decent work.” It concludes:
“Kenya’s challenge is not unemployment alone, it is the quality of employment.”
The Education–Employment Disconnect
The problem is not education alone, but the lack of connection between learning and livelihoods. TVET has gained policy attention, but remains underfunded and undervalued. University graduates often cannot find stable work, not because they lack knowledge, but because they lack exposure to the world of work, entrepreneurial thinking, and networks.
Education without employment is like a ladder standing in mid-air. As I wrote in my earlier articles:
“You cannot build a nation on degrees and diplomas alone. You need decent work.”
Why Employment Unlocks Transformation
Employment is more than income. For young people, it provides:
- Structure — rhythm and purpose to daily life
- Dignity — a sense of contribution and value
- Mobility — a pathway to stability, family formation, and civic participation
Without meaningful work, many youth experience frustration, anxiety, and hopelessness. The consequences spill into politics, mental health, urban unrest, and even migration pressures.
As Kang’ata notes in his 2024 commentary, Kenya’s biggest political problem is not elections or ethnicity, but unemployment and elite overproduction. When thousands of graduates chase a handful of jobs, frustration festers.
Pathways to High-Value Jobs
The way forward is not to accept any job, but to deliberately create and scale productive, protected, and progressive jobs. Research on Industries Without Smokestacks (IWOSS) shows Kenya’s greatest potential lies in:
- ICT and digital services
- Horticulture and agro-processing value chains
- Tourism and tradable services
- Transport and logistics
These are labor-intensive but also higher-productivity sectors — the kind that can absorb large numbers of youth if policy removes constraints.
Policy Shifts: Making Jobs Work
To recalibrate, Kenya must treat youth employment as a national emergency and opportunity. This includes:
- Expanding SME and informal sector upgrading — providing finance, business services, and pathways from informality to formality.
- Integrating entrepreneurship into all education — making starting a business an equipped choice, not a desperate fallback.
- Investing in digital and green economy skills — preparing youth for agri-tech, AI, renewable energy, and climate adaptation.
- First-job incentives — offering tax rebates or subsidies for employers who hire first-time youth workers.
- Scaling apprenticeships and internships — ensuring graduates leave school with experience, not just credentials.
As one World Bank report put it:
“The lack of quality jobs remains Kenya’s greatest development challenge.”
Conclusion: Decent Work, Shared Future
Kenya’s youth bulge is still with us. The 2003 KDHS showed it emerging; the 2023/24 KDHS confirms it has not yet been harnessed. Education has expanded, but without jobs, it risks producing frustration, not freedom.
The way forward is clear: jobs, not just education, are the true lever of transformation. But not just any jobs. High-value, productive, and secure work is the foundation of dignity, stability, and shared prosperity.
“Where there is no work, there is no future. Where there is good work, the future is already being built.”
In the next and final article of this series, we explore how youth inclusion and leadership — through a systems approach — can ensure Kenya’s young people lead, not just participate, in shaping the nation’s future.
🔹 This article is part of my 4-part series on Kenya’s Demographic Crossroads — exploring the youth bulge, outcome-based policy, jobs, and youth leadership.
👉 I’d love to hear your thoughts: What will it take for Kenya to move from “any job will do” to creating high-value, dignified work for its youth?
Bibliography
- Kenya Institute for Public Policy Research and Analysis (KIPPRA). Empirical Review of Youth Employment Policies and their Impact in Kenya. Policy Brief No. 16/2023–2024, 2024.
- INCLUDE Platform. Employment-Creation Potential for Youth in the Kenyan Economy. 2022.
- Shibia, A., Onsomu, E., & Munga, B. “Unlocking constraints to industries without smokestacks to catalyze job creation for youth in Kenya.” Brookings–KIPPRA, 2021.
- World Bank. Kenya Youth Employment and Opportunities (P151831): Implementation Completion and Results Report. March 2024.
- Ahuja, R., et al. “Predicting Working Poor and Total Employment in Kenya.” ScienceDirect, 2025.
- Ulandssekretariatet. Kenya Labor Market Profile 2024/25. 2024.
- World Bank. Kenya Economic Update & Overview. 2024–2025.
- Kang’ata, I. Kenya’s Biggest Political Problem: Unemployment and Elite Overproduction. 2024.
- Wathanga, Joshua. Demographic Transition in Kenya and Implications for Public Policy. Master’s dissertation, London School of Economics and Political Science, University of London, 2004. Unpublished.
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