From Exclusion to Influence: Youth Inclusion and Leadership as a Systems Approach

Introduction: The Final Bookend

This series has traced a two-decade journey between two bookends. In 2004, my master’s dissertation at the London School of Economics examined the 2003 KDHS and warned that Kenya’s youth bulge was a double-edged sword — opportunity if harnessed, turmoil if neglected. Two decades later, the 2023/24 KDHS confirms the bulge is still with us, yet much of the potential remains unrealized.

The first article emphasized that demography is not destiny; choices matter. The second argued that we must move from counting people to planning outcomes. The third underscored that jobs — not just education — are the true lever of transformation.

This final article focuses on the capstone: youth inclusion and leadership. The future of Kenya depends not only on whether youth are employed, but whether they have voice, agency, and power to shape systems. The task before us is to move youth from exclusion to influence.

Tokenism vs. True Influence

Too often, youth inclusion in Kenya is symbolic. Party manifestos promise space for young leaders, yet youth wings are frequently sidelined. A 2025 study by The Oslo Center found that Kenya’s main political parties restrict youth to mobilization roles, not decision-making, with elitist nomination systems and opaque funding.

As the study bluntly notes: “Youth inclusion without power is illusion.”

Similarly, UNFPA defines meaningful adolescent and youth engagement (MAYE) as inclusive, intentional, equitable partnerships, where youth share power in decision-making. Anything less is tokenism.

👉🏾 Inclusion is not about presence in the room; it is about power at the table.

Why Inclusion Matters

Youth inclusion is not a “feel-good” slogan. It is essential for Kenya’s future:

• Democracy and Accountability 🗳️: When young people participate, governance reflects broader society, not just elites.
• Innovation and Adaptation 💡: Youth bring creativity, digital fluency, and urgency that institutions need in an era of disruption.
• Resilience and Peace 🕊️: Research by CHRIPS shows that empowering youth through skills and opportunities reduces risks of unrest in Nairobi’s informal settlements.
• Equity and Justice ⚖️: Without deliberate efforts, marginalized youth — women, rural, disabled — remain excluded, entrenching inequality.

The SAIIA briefing of 2023 put it clearly: “Resilience is built when young people are included in shaping equitable systems, not just receiving their outcomes.”

Systems Thinking and Leadership

Youth leadership cannot be effective in isolation; it requires a systems approach.

One Young World’s 2023 paper on systems thinking shows how youth leaders can move from addressing symptoms to tackling root causes. Whether in climate change or governance, systems thinking empowers youth to design interventions that are interconnected, sustainable, and inclusive.

The i2Insights framework (2023) adds that inclusivity in systems requires considering GEMS — Gender, Environments, Marginalized voices, and Systems. Reflexivity, co-design, and decolonizing knowledge are key.

As one youth leader put it during a policy dialogue:
“Protest may spark attention, but systems thinking sustains transformation.”

Kenya’s Reality Check

Despite a youthful population, youth representation in Kenya’s governance remains limited:

• Parliament has only a handful of MPs under 35.
• County governments often allocate youth seats, but with limited resources.
• Civic participation is undermined by low youth voter turnout, distrust in institutions, and economic precarity.

Yet there are bright spots. The Kenya Youth Development Policy (2019) recognizes youth as partners. Devolution has created entry points at county level. Digital platforms have given youth tools to mobilize and campaign for accountability.

But without systemic reform, these gains risk stalling. As one Kenyan scholar observed: “Youth are not just future leaders — they are present actors. Exclusion delays, but it does not prevent, their demand for influence.”

From Exclusion to Influence: Pathways Forward

For Kenya to harness its youth dividend, inclusion must be designed, not assumed. This means rethinking institutions, policies, and civic culture.

① Share Power, Don’t Just Promise It
Youth councils, parliamentary quotas, and political party youth leagues must be given budgetary control and genuine decision-making authority, not just ceremonial recognition. Without actual resources and institutional power, young leaders remain symbolic figures, unable to shape outcomes or hold systems accountable.

② Invest in Capabilities, Not Just Seats
Equitable investments in education, health, and digital skills are essential to give youth the capacity to lead, not just the chance to occupy positions. As SAIIA emphasizes, leadership requires capability — without strong foundations, inclusion risks being hollow representation.

③ Intersectionality Matters
Women, rural youth, and marginalized groups often face multiple overlapping barriers that prevent their effective participation. The i2Insights “GEMS” approach reminds us that inclusion must be intentionally designed across identities and contexts, ensuring that no group is left behind in shaping Kenya’s future.

④ Civic Tech and Digital Democracy
Digital platforms provide powerful tools for youth to engage governance, demand accountability, and participate in decision-making. Yet unless access gaps are bridged and online engagement linked to offline policy influence, digital activism risks becoming noise without impact.

⑤ Systems Leadership Education
From secondary school through university, leadership curricula should embed systems thinking to prepare youth for complexity. By equipping young people to see interconnections, adapt to change, and sustain transformation, we nurture leaders who can turn today’s demographic wave into tomorrow’s dividend.

The Peace Dividend of Inclusion

Exclusion is costly. The CHRIPS study shows that youth left out of opportunity pathways are vulnerable to recruitment into violence. Conversely, inclusion in skills training and private-sector internships reduces tension and builds civic trust.

As one young man in Nairobi told researchers:
“When you give us work and voice, we stop being a threat and start being the future.”

This is not merely social engineering; it is national survival.

Conclusion: Leadership for Kenya’s Next Chapter

Kenya’s youth bulge remains the defining demographic fact of our time. But its destiny depends on moving young people from exclusion to influence.

This requires more than rhetoric. It requires sharing power, embedding systems thinking, and designing leadership pipelines that are inclusive, intersectional, and intentional.

“Inclusion without power is illusion. Influence requires design, investment, and trust.”

The final bookend of this series is clear: Kenya’s future will not be decided by whether youth are present, but by whether they are partners in power.

Series Closing

This concludes my 4-part series on Kenya’s Demographic Crossroads.

🔹 Article 1: Kenya’s Youth Bulge at a Crossroads — Lessons from Two Decades
🔹 Article 2: Beyond Counting — From Demography to Outcome Planning
🔹 Article 3: Jobs, Not Just Education — Why Employment Is the True Lever of Transformation
🔹 Article 4: From Exclusion to Influence — Youth Inclusion and Leadership as a Systems Approach

👉🏾 I’d love to hear your thoughts: What will it take for Kenya’s young people not just to participate, but to lead in shaping our shared future?

Bibliography

• The Oslo Center. Youth Political Accountability in Kenya. Oslo: The Oslo Center, 2025.
• South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA). Leveraging Youth for Inclusive Development and Resilience. Johannesburg: SAIIA, 2023.
• One Young World. Systems Thinking and One Young World’s Theory of Change. 2023.
• i2Insights. Inclusive Systemic Thinking for Transformative Change. 2023.
• UNFPA. Meaningful Adolescent and Youth Engagement (MAYE) Module. 2021.
• Mutahi, P. & Ruteere, M. Youth Empowerment and Violence Prevention in Nairobi: KYEOP Case Study. Nairobi: CHRIPS, 2020.
• Wathanga, J. Demographic Transition in Kenya and Implications for Public Policy. MSc Dissertation, London School of Economics and Political Science, University of London, 2004. Unpublished.